2023-24 League One Predictions
24th - Reading
One that I hope to get wrong. One that I want to get wrong. When there is this level of uncertainty around the club however, I'm struggling to put Reading anywhere else. After beginning transfer business in mid-July, and subsequently bringing in four good additions to a squad that badly needs senior bodies, the Royals were very recently hit with a new transfer embargo following a late payment to HMRC. That embargo has been lifted, a relief for all, allowing a couple of new signings to be registered in time for the weekend. With the situation Reading find themselves in though, it is difficult to feel certain that this is the club permanently getting out of the mud. A future embargo could return if things do not seriously change. With that could come possible sanctions, a restriction to weekly wage that can be offered to new signings, a restriction on how many of the new recruits can be registered. Major problems for a team that badly needs additions and quick. Reading fans are clear on their stance. Dai Yongge and Dai Xiu Li have to go. Years of mismanagement have seen the Royals decline from Premier League hopefuls to a team facing third tier football for the first time since 2001-02, and there is a belief that the slide will not stop until things change. Away from the boardroom and the protests, Rubén Sellés will do what he can with the limited group he has. The 40-year-old is a figure I can’t yet form a solid opinion on, and won’t after this season if things remain as bad as they are. It doesn’t feel fair to judge him on his time at Southampton, where he oversaw the end of a season that the Saints had looked doomed in for a long time. It would have been nice to see Sellés get a chance with a stable club; a solid platform with which to build on. Hopefully in the future. Competing for starts in the current goalkeeper department will be Dean Bouzanis and Jökull Andrésson. The former is an experienced Australian who played a portion of Reading’s Championship matches last season, but realistically is probably more suited to life now as a League Two number one. 2023-24 could provide a great opportunity for Andrésson to finally break into the Reading team. The 21-year-old Icelandic has up to now been a lower league goalkeeper with Exeter City, Morecambe and Stevenage. He is someone I think could prove a good stopper for the Royals going forwards. Reading do retain what looks like some good-level defensive figures from their Championship campaign, including right-sided defender Tom Holmes and left-sided defender/midfielder Tom McIntyre. Sam Hutchinson had his 2022-23 sadly affected by injury but has returned this pre-season. Young Senegalese defender Amadou Mbengue is another central option, likewise Ghanian Kelvin Abrefa who can go across the backline. 21-year-old Jeriel Dorsett is on the periphery. I am hopeful that Nesta Guinness-Walker and Andy Yiadom can prove a good quality pair of third tier full-backs on the left and right sides respectively. Youngsters Kelvin Abrefa and John Clarke have less Royals experience. Ovie Ejaria could be one of the Reading players to keep an eye out for. The 25-year-old has ability well above League One level and could be a star for Sellés this season. The royals have picked up a pair of excellent midfield captures in Lewis Wing and Charlie Savage. Wing comes in from Wycombe Wanderers after a very productive 2022-23 in central or attacking roles. Charlie Savage is the son of Robbie Savage, permanently leaving boyhood club Manchester United for the first time. The 20-year-old was trialled as a pressing centre-forward whilst with Duncan Ferguson at Forest Green Rovers. He is far better suited to a future in central midfield though and hopefully has an impressive campaign with the Royals. The arrivals of Wing and Savage on the pitch will ease the pressure off the young, inexperienced pair of Mamadi Camará and Michael Craig. With young Femi Azeez and experienced Canadian international Junior Hoilett staying on the books as winger options, Reading will have high hopes for the arrivals of Harvey Knibbs and Sam Smith from Cambridge United. The pair are forwards who can play across the frontline but often flourished at the Abbey Stadium in wide positions. Knibbs is 24 and a lively prospect on the left flank. 25-year-old Sam Smith was originally at Reading and has grown into a very impressive goalscoring threat when playing inverted on the right-hand-side. It is not great news though to hear about an injury suffered in pre-season that could leave Smith out of action for a period. Andy Carroll in League One can hopefully be pretty fun. The 34-year-old has never played below Championship level before this season and contributed nine during the Royals’ previous league season. It’s him or Sam Smith who look the standout senior striker options when both are available. Jahmari Clarke played a small part in Reading’s 2021-22 season and returns from a largely unsuccessful loan spell at Forest Green Rovers. The situation at Reading Football Club frustrates and upsets. Progress towards building a solid, competitive outfit at the minimum is at big rest of being held back by a return of an embargo. Reading need bodies this summer. The initial group retained from last year isn’t big enough. A great start had been made with four positive signings, but the four may well not even be registered yet by the time things get underway, and one of them looks set to miss the start with injury regardless. Sellés needs a miracle right now. I want things to change. I want things to be sorted out for the club and its fans. I want to look back on this in April and see that I was miles off the Royals. At this stage though, I can’t really put Reading anywhere else…
23rd - Cambridge United
I hate the League One relegation zone. It is the most difficult part of the 92 to predict each season. Always a number of teams in the ‘relegation battlers’ bracket, and always a case where you can form strong arguments as to why each could survive being one of the four worst. The valid combinations this season are endless and vary person to person. I have gone with Cambridge United in 23rd. Cue the barrage of people making notes in their calendars to come back to this page on the 27th April. This is not an easy decision to make, especially as Mark Bonner is a man I have plenty of time and admiration for, but is a reflection of the rebuild task he has been faced with. Two years ago, I massively underestimated Cambridge. One year later, I raised my expectations of them ahead of a campaign where it took till the final day for survival to be secured. This season, it’s a case of having to go again without a couple of key figures. There will be a new face between the sticks after Dimitar Mitov’s departure. Jack Stevens is the new arrival, joining from Oxford United after spending last season on loan in this league with Port Vale. Will Mannion will be his closest competition for starts. In defence, Cambridge can still call upon the vastly experienced pair of Michael Morrison and Ryan Bennett, regulars as part of the U’s survival push after joining January. Right-sided defender Jubril Okedina should be a decent enough alternative. Zeno Ibsen Rossi carries a lot more inexperience at EFL level. Full-back should be seen as an area of confidence for Cambridge United. Club legend Harrison Dunk and his superb versatility is being brought into a 13th season at the Abbey Stadium. Danny Andrew is a very nice addition, a player I liked at Fleetwood Town who had notably output from set pieces in 2021-22 especially. Brandon Haunstrup is an additional option in the left-back position. On the right, 21-year-old Liam Bennett returned from an excellent loan spell at Walsall and quickly established himself in the first team. Bennett is capable up either flank, but the right side is his primary position, and the current standout option in that part of the pitch. Paul Digby remains an integral part of the Cambridge midfield. The 28-year-old featured in every league game last season. With Adam May having been out of action since mid-October, the U’s need a new figure to join Digby in central areas. Might they have found a suitable player in Jordan Cousins? The 29-year-old comes in having been a bit-part player for Wigan Athletic during their last two seasons. George Thomas has had his brief time with Cambridge impacted by injury so far, and is primarily a player suited to more attacking roles. Academy graduates Lewis Simper and Kai Yearn could find themselves with more gametime in 2023-24. Now without either Harvey Knibbs or Sam Smith as options to play out wide in their frontline, Cambridge must hope that a new group can provide the sufficient firepower to keep their heads above. The U’s do still have James Brophy on their books, a player whose versatility allows him to play all the positions on the left wing and was regularly appearing as inverted right-winger during the latter parts of last season. Jack Lankester is a player I have really warmed to after a positive 2022-23, playing often as an attacking midfielder but also capable of being deployed out wide. Saikou Janneh might find himself with increased importance this season, a concern given his largely unproductive first season with Cambridge and a loan spell at AFC Wimbledon where he failed to pull up any trees. The return of versatile wide man Sullay Kaikai could ease those concerns though. Plenty of eyes will be Ipswich Town loanee Gassan Ahadme. The 22-year-old has all the qualities desired in a lone centre-forward and was approaching key man territory at Burton Albion before a last-minute summer move to Ipswich Town. After recovering from a period of injury though, Ahadme failed to hit the same level of impact and performance during a loan spell back at the Pirelli Stadium. Unlocking the Moroccan’s potential could be key to whether the U’s survive this season. Former Bolton man Elias Kachunga will hope to play his part. This time two years ago, Fejiri Okenabirhie was considered one of League One’s most effective finishers. He has yet to make a notable mark since arriving at the Abbey Stadium, however. As with every year, predicting League One’s relegation zone is a horrible task. Every side in the relegation candidates bracket has assets that will prove valuable in their pursuit of survival. With the case of Cambridge United, the backline and midfield remain largely unchanged, and the big question comes with replacing the departing firepower that just about kept them afloat last season. One major bit of confidence? The man in the dugout, a hometown boy with a track record of unlocking the ability in previously unfancied players. He needs to do it again…
22nd - Exeter City
Moving on from losing the core of an impressive side is no easy feat. 2022-23 was a really good season for the Grecians. Newly promoted, a campaign spent away from any serious trouble and the transition from Matt Taylor to Gary Caldwell was handled well. The 41-year-old Scot had question marks asked of him after being out of the senior management game for a long time, but made a sufficient impact upon his return to English football. His task now is going again whilst knowing that Exeter will be without some of their finest homegrown talents. The position of starting goalkeeper will be competed between Gary Woods and Viljami Sinisalo. 32-year-old Woods was largely a backup upon arriving last January from Kilmarnock, aside from a brief spell as a starter between February and March. 21-year-old Sinisalo is a Finland international on a season-long loan from Aston Villa. He failed to make an impact at Burton Albion during the start of last season, playing in what was admittedly a very poor side at the time. Perhaps this season can provide the opportunity to prove why he is so well thought of by his parent club. The centre of Exeter’s defence is the area where I currently carry good confidence. Alex Hartridge, Will Aimson and Pierce Sweeney formed a consistent trio in the backend of last season and all remain at St. James Park. 21-year-old Cheick Diabaté is an impressive young defender who but for injury would have found a lot more gametime in League One. Zak Jules arrives from Milton Keynes Dons as a tall left-sided defender. Among the departures from Devon this summer were wing-back regulars Jack Sparkes, Josh Key and Jake Caprice. Hopes are high that Vincent Harper can prove a worthwhile additional on the left after moving up two divisions from Eastleigh. Demetri Mitchell is another option on that side. Options are more limited at this stage on the right-hand-side, though there could well be a preference for Chelsea loanee Dion Rankine to be deployed as an attacking right-wing-back. The 20-year-old is seen more naturally to be a winger. Tom Carroll could prove a nice addition in the Exeter midfield. The 31-year-old has been out of action for a year following is release from Ipswich Town in 2022 but his prior experience at Premier League and Championship level that could prove valuable. Ryan Trevitt is a more attack-minded midfielder who arrives on a season-long loan from Brentford. Reece Cole is making a big step back into the EFL having been with seventh tier Hayes and Yeading United last season. The trio join a central unit that includes Kyle Taylor, sadly out of action for well over a season now, as well as academy products Harry Kite, Pedro Borges and Gabriel Billington. Kite saw plenty of gametime last season in midfield or defence. Borges could be one of the next youngsters set for a major breakthrough at St. James Park. Up top, the standout name in the current group is Sam Nombe. The 24-year-old registered 15 league goals last season and is a player whose quick movement in behind can cause serious problems. His importance to the team feels high with the relative inexperience around him. James Scott has had limited impact so far since arriving from Hull City last January. Sonny Cox is an 18-year-old academy product who should ideally be eased into the first team. In this current situation, Jack Aitchison could prove a pivotal piece of business. The 23-year-old can take up a number of forward positions but is a player I’ve liked best in a fluid attacking midfield role behind the frontline. An improvement in general goal output is needed though. It does feel a stretch at this stage to say that Exeter City will have the same comfortable season that they enjoyed in 2022-23. The midfield and frontline core of an impressive side has moved on, including a few of the Grecians’ brightest homegrown talents. There are holes at wing-back, striker and creative midfield that need to be filled, and it is difficult at this stage to feel certain that those roles have been replaced with a sufficient standard of player. If Caldwell got the chance to ride the momentum of a successful group last season, it’s now down to him to build a competitive team off his own back. It’s been a while since he’s had that responsibility…
21st - Fleetwood Town
Sometimes a club suffers relegation simply because it doesn’t have a team good enough for the level. Sometimes though, a genuinely fine group of players can be dragged into serious trouble by external factors. Could that happen to Fleetwood Town this season? The major news this summer regarding the Cod Army comes off the pitch. Chairman Andy Pilley has been forced to bring his 20-year association with Fleetwood an end after being convicted of fraud and jailed for 13 years. The club being put up for sale and looking for a change of ownership has slowed what was impressive progression with the Fleetwood Town brand. Whilst strides were being made on the pitch, work had in turn been made internationally with the formation of development clubs in South Africa and the United Arab Emirates. The situation at the club creates unwanted, challenging circumstances for Scott Brown. The 38-year-old had an admirable first season in senior management, developing Fleetwood into a tough but technical outfit that recorded a fine 13th place finish. On paper, Brown continues to have a group capable of being competitive in the third tier, with a mixture of experience and stars for the future added in both June and July. Jay Lynch will be expected to retain his place as the starting goalkeeper for the Cod Army, with a pair of younger understudies in Irish stopper David Harrington and Northern Irish ‘keeper Stephen McMullan. Defence remains a solid group. Toto Nsiala carries plenty of lower league knowhow in what will be his third season at Highbury Stadium. Josh Earl is an effective left-sided defender. Academy product Harrison Holgate had a breakthrough season in the central defence in 2022-23. Brendan Wiredu was one of the standout signings when he arrived from Colchester United last July, and has featured regularly in both defence and midfield for Fleetwood. 20-year-old Connor Teale is a centre-back on the periphery. Shaun Rooney, a summer 2022 signing from St. Johnstone, was one of Fleetwood’s standout players last season up the right-hand-side. The 26-year-old typifies the game Scott Brown was well known for as a player, someone you always want on your team and never a player you want to compete against. Carl Johnston is a serious utility man, naturally a full-back but also a player Brown has and will continue to be deploy all over the pitch. Left-back options aside from Johnston include the aforementioned Josh Earl, and new Celtic loanee Adam Montgomery. Brendan Wiredu can afford to be deployed in defence because of the midfield unit ahead of him. Josh Vela established himself as a regular in his first season at Highbury Stadium. Scott Robertson was more bit-part but has plenty of growth left at just 21 years old. Harvey Macadam is a player I have really grown to like, naturally a midfielder but shown to also be a capable wide forward during the last 12 months. Added into the mix is Cheltenham’s Ryan Broom, long admired for his tenacious all-round midfield game and his versatility to play centrally or out on the right. Danny Mayor is a high calibre signing from League One Champions Plymouth Argyle. The 32-year-old is an accomplished dribbler who specialises in drifting infield from the left channel. Junior Quitirna earned his first appearances for Fleetwood in the backend of last season after signing from Waterford in January 2023. Callum Dolan is an attacking midfielder targeting more gametime in 2023-24. Up front, young trio Phoenix Patterson, Promise Omochere and Cian Hayes all played their part in the 2022-23, featuring in several roles on either side or more centrally. Derry City’s Ryan Graydon comes in as another good option to be deployed on the flanks. With Carlisle United’s Sam Fishburn brought in as one for the future, Fleetwood continue to turn to the pair of Jayden Stockley and Jack Marriott to lead the line. Both were high-profile signings at the end of the last January window, Stockley a physical forward who at times plays off the frontline as a battling first ball winner, Marriott as a striker still respected most for his movement in behind and sharp finishing. The latter took a month to register his first goal but would finish the season with eight in 19. Putting Fleetwood Town in my relegation zone is a gamble based on a fear that something bad may happen down the line. Scott Brown and his squad are a good-quality group; there is more than enough about them to stay above the red line and be competitive in this third-tier line-up. The issue comes with the uncertainty now in place off the field. After two decades of familiarity and progress under Andy Pilley, complications now come with finding new, suitable ownership in a sufficient amount of time. If the new face of the club isn’t found, the repercussions could be costly…
20th - Cheltenham Town
The king has gone. Long live the Irish king. Wade Elliott had some serious boots to fill this time last season, tasked with succeeding the phenomenal tenure of Michael Duff and keeping Cheltenham Town afloat as one of the division’s biggest underdogs. It wasn’t a smooth ride throughout, but the 44-year-old delivered on hopes as the Robins secured another season in League One with time to spare. Having picked his club for relegation the past two seasons, I owe Elliott and Cheltenham Town a year of backing, and I am going to give them it this season even with one glaringly obvious omission up top. It’s really pleasing to see Luke Southwood return to Whaddon Road. The 25-year-old Northern Ireland international played every league game whilst on loan from Reading last season and is now back on a permanent deal from the Royals. 23-year-old Jamie Pardington comes in as a much more inexperienced understudy. Curtis Davies is the standout name brought into the defensive unit. Can the 38-year-old be trusted to play a full season of games in central defence? I am doubtful of that. His vast experience could prove a welcome addition though to a backline that still contains left-sided defenders Lewis Freestone and Tom Bradbury. Sean Long, naturally a right-back, was a regular last season on the right side of the back three. With Long’s future seemingly now in central defence, wing-back on the right side does feel an area that could still be addressed before the window is up. Liam Smith comes in from Dundee United without much fanfare. Will Ferry can operate as a wing-back on either side but is more natural on the left. Natural midfielder James Olayinka could possibly be deployed there in an auxiliary role. Ben Williams plays at left-back or left-wing-back for the Robins, and Lewis Freestone has played similar positions in the past. I would want Olayinka to this season establish himself as one of Cheltenham’s key midfield men. The 22-year-old former Arsenal product caught my eye a few seasons back at Northampton Town in a creative midfield role and would have impressed for longer had COVID not hit. With Liam Sercombe, Ellis Chapman, Daniel Adshead and Elliot Bonds less suited to attacking roles, a shining season from Olayinka would really go a long way to helping the Robins achieve their seasonal targets. Versatile central man Curtis Thompson joins after several years at Wycombe Wanderers. Nottingham Forest loanee Oliver Hammond will aim to contribute in central areas on his first move away from the City Ground. Up front, the big story is the departure of Alfie May to Charlton Athletic. The 30-year-old leaves a third-tier superstar with 43 goals in his two League One seasons at Cheltenham Town. You can be forgiven for believing that May’s departure dooms the Robins. As the striker continually shone however, the growth of a new arrival went somewhat under the radar. Aidan Keena joined last January from Sligo Rovers and made a positive impact alongside May. Six goals and three assists for the 24-year-old who came into League One following a full season in the League of Ireland. Now with a proper period of rest and a full pre-season behind them, Keena should be seen as one of the players to watch in League One this season. He is a strong candidate to become Cheltenham’s star man this new campaign, especially as fellow strikers Will Goodwin and George Lloyd have made minimal impact in their Robins careers so far. Rob Street is an intriguing signing from Crystal Palace after a decent loan spell at Shrewsbury Town in 2022-23. It is unlikely to be a season of comfort for Cheltenham Town. They will be understandably marked as one of the favourites again. I hold belief that the underdogs can pull it off in 2023-24 though. Wade Elliott would have been a previous concern but proved his worth last term. Southwood’s return is a big positive. In the absence of Alfie May, I anticipate Aidan Keena to rise and take the reins as Cheltenham’s star goalscorer. Concerns on overall depth in defence and attacking midfield remain for now, but could well be addressed before the window is up. Both previous survival campaigns were impressive feats. This could be the most remarkable of the lot…
19th - Carlisle United
As the side promoted through the League Two play-offs, it is logical to presume that Carlisle United have the most work to do in order to be a competitive third tier outfit. There are a couple of reasons you should keep faith in the Cumbrians though, and a big one in particular. The phrase “never go back” simply does not apply to Paul Simpson at Carlisle United. It was in the mid-2000s that the manager guided his hometown club to back-to-back promotions out of non-league and into League One. Following a subsequent career at five other clubs, and including a FIFA Under-20 World Cup win with England, the now-56-year-old returned to Brunton Park with Carlisle at serious risk of falling out of the Football League. Simpson would keep the Cumbrians up, and just 12 months later give them a first League One season in nine years after a penalty shootout win at Wembley. The man nicknamed “The Messiah” has once again demonstrated his ability to raise the level of players others would not have considered worthwhile investments. Carlisle’s promotion last season simply does not happen without him. Giant Czech goalkeeper Tomáš Holý had an impressive first season up in Cumbria and will remain Carlisle’s number one in 2023-24. Understudy Gabriel Breeze is an academy graduate and far more inexperienced. Morgan Feeney has departed for Shrewsbury Town, but Carlisle have been able to welcome back play-off semi-final hero Ben Barclay on a permanent deal from Stockport County. A persistent injury crisis at the Cumbrians forced Paul Simpson to at times deploy the 26-year-old as an auxiliary right-wing-back, a position which he made work. 35-year-old Paul Huntington was a hugely impactful signing when he joined his hometown club last August, and he will continue to be a commanding presence in the heart of defence in 2023-24. Jon Mellish is still a valuable part of the Carlisle team, capable as a mobile left-sided defender or as a box-to-box midfield presence. Corey Whelan is a decent right-sided defender. Left-sided defender Jack Robinson has now been signed permanently from Middlesbrough. Further added into the defensive unit is Sam Lavelle, a player who stood out for several years but found his recent career sadly impacted by injury. He will be a solid option when available. At left-wing-back, Carlisle have a dependable presence in Jack Armer. Jack Robinson or natural midfielder Taylor Charters can play at left-back or left-wing-back in his absence. Returning from Nottingham Forest for another loan is 20-year-old right-back Fin Back (who I have joyously been calling Fin Back the Full-Back for the past 12 months), a player looking to make up for lost time after having last season affected by fitness issues. Academy product Jack Ellis deputised well at right-back and right-wing-back in his absence, as did the aforementioned Ben Barclay. In the centre of the park, one particular standout name. Owen Moxon remains a Carlisle United player at the time of writing. The 25-year-old was originally released from his boyhood club as a youngster, returning to Brunton Park ahead of 2022-23 after several years north of the border. Moxon has become a lower league superstar under Paul Simpson, an outstanding creative midfield talent who finished with a joint-best 16 assists in League Two that went alongside six league goals. He will play a starring role once again for the Cumbrians this season, as will Callum Guy who is a dependable, deeper-lying midfielder that once held the creative role Moxon now possesses. Alfie McCalmont is a bright attack-minded midfielder signed permanently from Leeds United after an initial loan. Dylan McGeouch provides a solid additional option in central areas; one of the better players from relegated Forest Green Rovers. Taylor Charters and Jayden Harris are young midfielders on the periphery. Jordan Gibson spent time as the midfield’s main attacking presence in the first half of last season but has also featured out wide and at wing-back under Paul Simpson. There may be concerns about the loss of top scorer Kristian Dennis, but even with 20 league goals to his name last term, Carlisle United never felt fully dependant on him to start games and play every minute. Ryan Edmondson and Joe Garner do ideally need to up their output though as part of what is currently a frontline low on senior options. Sean Maguire on paper looks a real coup, several years in the Championship with Preston North End and the end of the season just gone at Coventry City. He is a player who needs to return to a former level of ability though, having had recent seasons affected by fitness issues and recorded limited output as a result. Danny Butterworth signs permanently from Blackburn Rovers. He is a player I like best as a fluid attacking midfield playing behind the frontline. If Paul Simpson can get the consistency out of performances which came in flashes at Port Vale, the Cumbrians could have a gem on their hands with the 23-year-old. Luke Plange will be keen to make his mark for the first team after an unproductive loan last season at Lincoln City. Carlisle United are not yet the finished article, and will be a side likely to struggle down the bottom end of the third tier until they become one. Defence does look sorted and a very solid unit. Midfield in turn carries a high amount of talent. The frontline for now is the issue that either needs to be address with further additions or have its current members step up and provide sufficient output. My faith will stay high in this team’s survival chances regardless though because of the man in the dugout. Simpson is a miracle worker. Little was expected of a Carlisle group without much major chance to the previous season in League Two. Whilst other managers would have probably guided that side to a solid mid-table finish, Simpson took them all the way to the third tier. The man can simply do no wrong at Brunton Park…
18th - Northampton Town
The only thing that would send the Cobblers into deep trouble this season is another freak injury crisis. This group is as good as the one that finished 2022-23, if not better. Jon Brady, the Cobblers, and the club’s fans have been sent through quite the tense rollercoaster these last couple of seasons. Relegated with the Australian at the helm in 2020-21, Northampton found themselves on the wrong side of a historic League Two final day in 2021-22. It has taken a further 12 months to get the promotion that was desired, and has been done in an impressive manner. Brady’s side were in the automatic promotion places for the majority of the season and spent just one week outside of the division’s top seven places. The competition goes up a new level in League One, but they look well prepared for it. Northampton still have Lee Burge as their first-choice goalkeeper. The 30-year-old missed just a portion of last season in League Two and is the clear number one this season as his current understudy is 18-year-old academy product James Dadge. Jon Brady deserves plenty of plaudits for guiding Northampton to promotion despite the injury crisis suffered last season. Patched up backlines were often required in the latter games of the season, but the unit when fully available is a good group. Jon Guthrie and Sam Sherring are the standout centre-backs. The former played all but five league games last term. Max Dyche was somewhat forced into a breakout campaign following the injury crisis, but performed admirably all the same. Tyler Magloire and Akin Odimayo are players who can operate across the backline for Northampton Town. The new signing in the centre of defence is Manny Monthé. Four years ago, when promoted up to this level with Tranmere Rovers, the Cameroonian had a reputation as the “lower league van Dijk”, one of the best commanding defenders in the lower leagues. His reputation has since taken something of a hit, but the 28-year-old still had a pair of positive seasons with Walsall before joining the Cobblers. A player with a point to prove. At left-back, Northampton can welcome Patrick Brough, someone I have admired for a long time. The six-foot-three 27-year-old is primarily a left-back, but is also comfortable playing at centre-back or being pushed further forward to a dynamic wing-back role. Ryan Haynes and Ali Koiki are other left-back options, the latter capable of being deployed further forwards. Aaron McGowan and 20-year-old Harvey Lintott are senior right-back options alongside the aforementioned Akin Odimayo and Tyler Magloire. McGowan found gametime on both flanks last season. Northampton have a trio of tenacious midfielders on their books in Ben Fox, Shaun McWilliams and Will Hondermarck. The latter is the newest arrival at Sixfields and the one of the three who didn’t have his gametime last season affected by injury. Jack Sowerby is a typically deeper-lying midfielder. The return of Marc Leonard is a huge boost. The 21-year-old shone last season on loan from Brighton and Hove Albion and returns despite the possibility of a move up the bottom end of the Championship. His passing range and smooth composure on the ball makes him a joy to watch. Mitch Pinnock’s creative ability from crossing positions could make him a key asset in this Northampton Town side. The 28-year-old can be deployed out wide or in attacking midfield positions. One player who undoubtedly will be a key man however is Sam Hoskins. The 30-year-old has been with the Cobblers since August 2015 and was their superstar last season. League Two’s second top scorer with 22 goals in 41 appearances, a standout season from a Northampton Town career that has seen him be deployed in a whole host of positions. Playing as a winger in the frontline brings out the best in Hoskins, and his output in League One could be crucial in determining whether the Cobblers are comfortable season. Up top, Northampton have Kieran Bowie back for another loan from Fulham. The 20-year-old had a decent impact whilst at Sixfields last season, playing primarily up top or as a left-winger. Fellow Scot Louis Appéré is a player that has always impressed me when I have seen him, a battering ram of a striker when in full flow. Whilst he has yet to record a prolific season, the 24-year-old does feel like a player who could one day soon have a stellar goalscoring campaign. It would be handy for Northampton if it came in 2023-24. Tyreece Simpson similarly has a great physical profile, a striker we haven’t seen get much senior action for a while, lots of fun during his previous period with Swindon Town. Danny Hylton arrived last summer with plenty of excitement given his previous history at League Two level. The 34-year-old has yet to get off the mark for his newest club, however. Initial concerns I carried around Northampton Town have depleted fast. There’s been no weakening to the Cobblers squad; influential players from last year have stayed or re-joined and their additional bonuses from the free agent and loan market. Without a need for chopping and changing from another injury crsis, there should be belief in comfortable survival. Sam Hoskins will hope for similar output to last season, and at the very least to improve on his best League One return of seven goals from 2020-21. If he can hit the heights again, and Louis Appéré can provide the output I believe him to be capable of, Sixfields could prove a tough place to take anything away from…
17th - Shrewsbury Town
A switch of manager this summer following a largely successful 2022-23 season. It could prove a fine decision; it could prove a disaster. Who can say for sure? It was certainly an eyebrow raiser when the news broke of Steve Cotterill’s imminent departure from Shrewsbury Town. The 59-year-old’s tenure was a very encouraging one that included several scalps over two and a half seasons and a top-half finish last term. It certainly deserved a longer club statement than then one he got when the news of his departure was confirmed. 20 days later, Cotterill’s successor was announced. Matthew Taylor is someone I have wanted to see get another crack in management. His 36-game spell with League Two Walsall felt one where he wasn’t able to work to the full maximum of his ability. It is something of a surprise nonetheless to see Taylor pick up a job a league higher, especially after being out of action of over a year. In situations such as these, you hope to see a rookie manager supported by a decent group of players. I believe that Shrewsbury have such a group. Slovakian Marko Maroši was one of League One standouts in 2022-23, an excellent goalkeeper. Harry Burgoyne remains as his understudy. Chey Dunkley should continue to provide a commanding presence right in the heart of defence. Tom Flanagan can play either side of him. Morgan Feeney arrives as a promotion winner with Carlisle United last season. Senior depth was an issue for the Shrews last term and for now looks a familiar problem in 2023-24. Michael Parker and Jason Sraha are young defenders in from Huddersfield Town and Barnsley respectively who carry little EFL experience. Young left-sided Joe Anderson is therefore a welcome addition on a loan deal from Sunderland, especially with the sad news that George Nurse looks set for a period out with injury. 24-year-old Tunmise Sobowale arrives the right side. Central defence is a position in his repertoire, but his starts with Waterford last season where in a wider right-back or right-wing-back role. Competition on that side comes from Elliott Bennett and natural midfielder Elliot Thorpe. The latter is on a season-long loan from Luton Town and will be keen to make his mark in League One after a brief, uneventful spell with Burton Albion. George Nurse would have been a standout option at left-wing-back if not for his injury. Steve Cotterill as a result showed a preference for Jordan Shipley in an attacking role out there, a move which proved effective. Competition can come though from new arrival Mal Benning after a transfer from Port Vale. Carl Winchester returns on a permanent deal from Sunderland. The 27-year-old Northern Irishman can also operate as a right-back but should continue where he left off last season as a regular in central midfield. There is need to replace the output of Luke Leahy following his departure to Wycombe Wanderers. Eyes may well turn to Tom Bayliss who enjoyed a productive first campaign in Shropshire. Taylor Perry is on following a successful pre-season trial. The more defensive-minded Nohan Kenneh arrives on a season-long loan from Hibernian. Up top, numbers are very limited. Dan Udoh made a long-awaited return to the team this pre-season and the 26-year-old will be a big boost to have back on the pitch. Ryan Bowman had a good first season at Shrewsbury Town, but his output was a lot less impressive last year with just four goals across the league campaign. Max Mata however comes in with very positive reviews from his time in the Republic of Ireland, a 23-year-old New Zealand international previously at Shelbourne. Matthew Taylor has a point to prove. It is not an easy to succeed Steve Cotterill on the back of Shrewsbury’s most positive season for years, but the new manager does possess a group with enough quality to be a competitive outfit. There is still that overriding concern about overall depth behind a good quality first team, and that could create issues down the line if any potential injuries plague the squad. Defence and midfield generally looks to be to a good standard however, and Dan Udoh’s return up top is a welcome sight. Shrewsbury were a something of a surprise package in League One last season. Let’s see if Taylor can produce something similar in 2023-24…
16th - Port Vale
I found myself seeing the transfer business coming through at Vale Park and continually nodding my head in approval. That can only be a good thing. There are a couple of question marks for the Valiants ahead of this new campaign, perhaps the biggest one at the moment coming from within the dugout. Andy Crosby’s coaching career up to now has largely been in assistant manager roles. He stepped in during Vale’s promotion season in 2022 after Darrell Clarke took a period of leave for personal reasons, earning an admirable record as acting manager across 17 games. Clarke’s sacking from his position as Port Vale manager in April 2023 came as a shock to many, the removal of a figure who seemingly was playing a pivotal part in turning Port Vale into a competitive third tier outfit. Crosby’s promotion from assistant to new permanent boss came almost a month later to a mixture of views. The 50-year-old will have the backing of the Vale Park crowd for the early parts of the season at least, and it is down to him to make use of the tools he has in order to maintain that level of support. Port Vale have brought in Connor Ripley following his release from Morecambe, an outstanding capture. The 30-year-old might have suffered relegation with the Shrimps last season, but it would have happened much sooner on if not for his numerous exceptional displays. One of the top performers in the division last season, with Swiss-born Canadian Jayson Leutwiler brought in from Oldham Athletic to be his backup. Newly appointed club captain Nathan Smith is a popular figure with the fans of his boyhood club and often a commanding presence in the centre of defence. Possible central partners for the 27-year-old this season include Lewis Cass, capable across the backline, as well as left-sided defender Dan Jones. Fellow left-sided defender Alex Iacovitti arrives from Ross County. Kofi Balmer is a 22-year-old Northern Irish defender on loan from Crystal Palace who I am very keen to see in action this season. Jones is a player primarily suited to a left-back or left-wing-back role who is still under contract at Vale Park. Instead of Jones however, Port Vale now have the option to play Conor Grant on the far-left side of defence. Grant is an excellent signing from title winners Plymouth Argyle, naturally a midfielder but a player with the dynamism and technique to excel as a wing-back. Out on the right, Tom Sang feels a very promising signing from Cardiff City, whilst Jason Lowe becomes a useful squad option at right-back or central midfield after joining from Salford City. Mitchell Clark is back at Vale Park after two seasons with Accrington Stanley and is a quality choice on either side of defence. With the sad news that Tom Conlon will miss the start of this season with injury, attention must turn to other good players in the midfield unit. The aforementioned Jason Lowe could feature in the centre of the park, as could Funso Ojo, Ben Garrity or Sheffield United loanee Oliver Arblaster. Garrity is one to potentially watch here, a player who has enjoyed the best time of his Port Vale career so far as an attacking midfielder. Ethan Chislett is a really good bit of business from AFC Wimbledon, one of the Dons stars of last season who caught the eye as the attack-minded part of a midfield three or as a lively left winger. Young academy graduate Tommy McDermott is one of the players on the periphery of the first team. It's up front where Port Vale currently have the most work to do. Ellis Harrison had good overall output in his first season at Vale Park and should be considered an accomplished League One forward. There is not much else besides him at the moment though. Gavin Massey played in a plethora of roles last season without particularly excelling in any of them. 20-year-old striker Josh Thomas is getting a first loan move in the EFL as he joins from Swansea City. Academy youngster James Plant is a player who could be set for a bright future, a natural winger thrown into the deep end when handed his first start as a midfielder away at Portman Road. He has performed admirably in his six senior appearances so far. James Wilson is reportedly training with the club, but a new deal has yet to be announced at the time of writing. Andy Crosby isn’t far away from having a very good group at his disposal. Plenty of signings so far have been standouts, forming part of a new but dependable-looking defensive unit and a midfield with adequate balance. A lack of striker potency outside of Ellis Harrison will rightfully be a concern at the moment. Plenty of the window remains for it to be addressed though, and if it is, Vale could quickly be lifted further up the prediction table. This is a likeable squad.
15th - Stevenage
Stevenage are all set to shithouse League One this season, and I am here for it. Steve Evans is a man and a manager that everyone has an opinion about. The Scot has been ruffling feathers with his team and his antics since way back in 1998 and still remains a top-quality lower league manager, contrary to what some may wish to tell you. His transformative period at Stevenage began in March 2022, saving the club relegation to the National League and turning them into promotion winners just 12 months later. The 60-year-old is now back in a league where he had Gillingham established as a competitive outfit for a number of years. With good backing from the summer, he’s capable of turning Stevenage into the same thing. Stevenage will hope for less of a goalkeeper crisis than the one they suffered on the way to promotion last season. A total of seven players were required to fill in between the sticks during the campaign. Taye Ashby-Hammond was the original signing last season and has now made a permanent move from Fulham to the club where he greatly impressed. Hungarian Krisztián Hegyi comes in on loan from West Ham United to provide his competition. The main core of the promotion-winning machine all remain at Broadhall Way for this new season. Carl Piergianni was a superstar in 2022-23, a monster in both boxes and a player whose aggressive style should translate fine to League One. Dan Sweeney was the more underappreciated regular in defence, with the added versatility to go in midfield. Guyana International Terence Vancooten will be deployed in between Piergianni and Sweeney in central defence or be pushed forward into a defensive midfield role in front of a back four. Right-sided defender Nathan Thompson is a solid addition from Peterborough United. 20-year-old Manchester City loanee Finley Burns featured briefly in the Championship with Swansea City two seasons ago. Nathan Thompson is an additional option at right-back, though the retained pair of Kane Smith and Luther James-Wildin should battle it out for starts on that side. The latter could also alternatively be deployed on the left, where the task of replacing Max Clark’s output has been handed to Dan Butler. He is another formerly from Peterborough United. It’s a Thompson overload at Stevenage this season as midfielders Ben and Louis join Nathan in the list of new signings. Nick Freeman took up a number of midfield and winger roles at this level with Wycombe Wanderers last season. Alex MacDonald comes up a level from Gillingham to likely provide an additional squad option, formerly a winger in his youth who has now become a more regular presence in central midfield. Retained from last season’s central unit are Jake Forster-Caskey and Jordan Roberts. The latter went very under the radar despite being in a promotion-winning team. His performances in attacking midfield or on the left flank deserved more general attention than what they got. The big concern for now with Stevenage is up top, where general firepower is limited. Elliott List missed almost all of last season with injury and has had a brief cameo in pre-season this summer. The 26-year-old is a player I have always thought of as a potentially dangerous weapon with his pace, but he has yet to really make his mark at League One level. Jamie Reid provided several important goals last season in a double figure campaign, but has yet to really show himself as a constant prolific goalscorer in the Football League. Physical forward Aaron Pressley is a permanent addition from Brentford, someone who showed more positive growth on loan at Accrington Stanley than his initial loan at AFC Wimbledon. Josh March is yet to show himself as a dependable EFL level goalscorer but has made small contributions to seasons at Forest Green Rovers, Harrogate Town and Stevenage. Stevenage’s promotion to League One last season was no fluke. The Boro demonstrated their credentials early into the campaign and spent all but the opening weekend inside League Two’s top seven places. It feels like those writing Stevenage off are doing so either on account of the size of the club, or through a biased disliking of the man in the dugout. It isn’t a smart belief to have. Steve Evans has been a brilliant fit in Hertfordshire from the word go, building a side in his image that are direct, ruffle feathers, and provide some serious aerial threat when the defenders are up from the back. Translate that into the bottom half of the third tier, where being rock solid and capitalising on individual moments is the masterplan for season away from serious trouble, and this team tick all the boxes. Social media’s going to be a lot of fun when Stevenage win football matches…
14th - Leyton Orient
The League Two champions should take to League One like a duck to water. I am hopeful that we finally get to see what Richie Wellens is capable of at third tier level. Leyton Orient will allow him to work to the best of his ability, something that hasn’t always been possible for Wellens when at previous clubs. The Mancunian is a brilliant football mind, a head coach capable of installing an entertaining, attacking style of play onto his teams. Now a double title-winner in the fourth tier, the 43-year-old is going to be keen to attack this new division with the same amount of flair, passion and class that Orient showed in League Two. It hasn’t been perfect preparation for Wellens this summer. He will have to enter this season without star goalkeeper Lawrence Vigoroux, now a Premier League backup at Burnley. Capturing Sol Brynn on a loan deal from Middlesbrough is a very smart piece of business though. The 22-year-old impressed at Swindon Town last season and feels ready to step up to League One football. Sam Howes has been purchased from Wealdstone and should prove a decent level backup. The core of Leyton Orient’s title-winning defence all remain. Omar Beckles and Dan Happe didn’t get to play every game together last season, but formed a very effective partnership in the centre of defence when they did. Adam Thompson is a decent enough alternative in the centre back position and someone who can also be deployed at right-back. Popular left-sided defender Ed Turns returns for another loan from Brighton and Hove Albion. The full-back duo of Rob Hunt and Tom James should hopefully excel once again at Brisbane Road. Both are naturally right-backs, but Hunt has never looked out of place on the left and is a player Wellens has great history with. James spent a period of last season in midfield but is still known best for his performances at full-back, which included a set of spectacular strikes on the way to title success. 21-year-old academy graduate Jayden Sweeney stepped up to the plate last term and can cover as a good full-back option on either side. Idris El Mizouni is back for another loan from Ipswich Town. The Tunisian was a fantastic fit at Brisbane Road in 2022-23, becoming a regular star in the centre of the park and should be expected to simply carry on from where he finished. Jordan Brown and Darren Pratley provide more disciplined, defensive roles in midfield. George Moncur was often pushed further forwards. Max Sanders joins as a useful squad option. Ethan Galbraith is a great signing. The Northern Irishman joins from Manchester United after impressing in attacking midfield positions during a loan spell at Salford City last season. Up front, Orient will hope that the problem of replacing Paul Smyth can be answered by Dan Agyei. The 26-year-old recorded the season of his career with Crewe Alexandra, netting 16 league goals up front and on the left wing. Theo Archibald is a player I have long admired, primarily an inverted right-winger in Wellens’ team but someone who can play comfortably in any position on either flank. Jordan Graham comes in as good source of delivery from the flanks and someone who can also be dropped into a right-wing-back role if necessary. Ruel Sotiriou is still admired as a promising academy product and the 22-year-old made a telling contribution to the team last season from forward areas. Aaron Drinan’s output in 2022-23 was more limited, but there doesn’t feel to be a great dependence on him providing all the goals. Joe Pigott could prove a really smart signing, a striker who contributed whilst on loan at Portsmouth last season and was a League One goalscoring star for AFC Wimbledon before joining Ipswich Town in 2021. He has made a permanent move to East London following his release from the Tractor Boys. Some may carry relegation concerns about Leyton Orient as a newly promoted side. I don’t. Richie Wellens’ team looked a comfortable third tier outfit for the majority of last season in League Two, a big reason why they flew out of the blocks at the start of the campaign and stayed top of the league from the middle of October onwards. Initial concerns about losing a couple of key men have been addressed with good quality signings. Defence and midfield continues to look as impressive as it did last season. Comfortable mid-table would be my minimum aspiration for Leyton Orient this season. If everything clicks again, do not rule out top half. League One is an open-enough division this year for at least one of the promoted sides to continue that winning feeling…
13th - Burton Albion
We’re back where we were two years ago with Burton Albion. Fresh off a successful relegation survival push, the Brewers will look to build on encouraging second half of the season form. Back in 2021-22, a campaign which began with a positive look up towards the top end of the league suffered a serious slump after too much was let go in the January window. It’s key that the same mistake isn’t made again. Dino Maamria is well aware of the errors made in the recent past, having seen all of the decline back down to relegation candidates whilst assistant manager to Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink. When the Dutchman departed after a disastrous start to 2022-23, Maamria performed a phenomenal job by delivering 55 points from 39 league games, taking the club permanently out of the bottom four in early February and eventually all the way up to a 15th place finish. Summer recruitment has been a steady and productive process, creating a squad that will this time be aspiring for the top end of the division rather than its bottom end. It's all change in the goalkeeper department where Burton now have two 29-year-olds on their hands. Jamal Blackman was the established number one for an Exeter City side that enjoyed a great 2022-23 season. He is likely to take the gloves ahead of Kiwi Max Crocombe, who takes his first steps into League One football after two largely successful years at Grimsby Town. Sam Hughes will remain an integral figure to all of Burton Albion’s success this season. The 26-year-old is a commanding presence in the centre of the Brewers back three, a regular target of deep set-pieces and an accomplished ball carrier when the opportunity arises. Club captain John Brayford is to his right. The 35-year-old may be past his best years as a reliable right-back, but can still be a dynamic overlapping centre-back on occasion and is a deceptively strong aerial threat when corners and free-kicks are sent into the opposition box. On the left side of the back three, Dino Maamria has a dilemma. Does he show a preference to former Dundee captain Ryan Sweeney, a natural left-footed centre-back, or with popular defender Jasper Moon now back permanently from Barnsley, does he persist with the Moon-Hughes-Brayford trio that formed a solid, consistent partnership in the second half of last season? It’s a nice headache to have. Left-back had been an issue for some time at Burton before Zac Ashworth came in on loan in the second half of 2022-23. A new loan figure will take that role this season in the form of Oxford United’s Steve Seddon. His dynamic game and vocal organisation could make him a valuable fit on the far-left side of Burton’s 3-4-2-1 formation. Tom Hamer remains after signing a new contract, a player with a unique, physical skillset. Jake Caprice joins from Exeter City as a front-footed wing-back option on either side. Maamria has been trying natural winger Bobby Kamwa at right-wing-back during pre-season. The 23-year-old’s ability in the final third makes the role a logical fit from an attacking perspective, but his positioning and defensive game may still need work. Rekeem Harper looks set to take up the role of midfield destroyer, tasked with connecting the back and central units when in possession and being part of an aggressive midfield press when out of it. It’s a high-risk role that requires strong levels of ball control and positioning. Mistakes made in pre-season will need to be eradicated before the campaign gets underway. Joe Powell first arrived at Burton in January 2020 as an attacking midfielder but has found a new home as a deeper-lying ball carrier who provides added grit and good quality set-piece delivery. 21-year-old Mark Helm is the player to watch at the Pirelli Stadium this season. He is an excellent, nimble attacking midfielder who will often drift into the left channel to collect the ball. South African Kegs Chauke has been bought from Southampton, a lively, technical midfielder. Ciaran Gilligan is a tenacious academy product. Charlie Lakin may find that his future is away from the Pirelli Stadium. Plenty of eyes will be on Cole Stockton up top. The in-demand 29-year-old signs for the Brewers after 34 League One goals during his final two seasons with Morecambe. He is an accomplished all-round striker capable of spectacular solo moments. Mason Bennett rejoins the club he once spent time with on loan after three seasons with Championship Millwall. The 27-year-old has been deployed in a free roaming attacking midfield role during pre-season. Josh Gordon arrives on the back of his career-best season at Barrow, 15 league goals in the division below. Mustapha Carayol is an experienced winger whose “knock past and run” attacking technique can still cause a problem against opposition full-backs. Josh Walker is still adapting to life in League One after moving up two divisions from Dagenham and Redbridge last January. After a season spent monitoring the gap between the relegation zone and safety, Burton Albion are keen to look up to the other end of League One. This is a more open division in 2023-24, less standout candidates and the potential for one or two of the middle pack to mount realistic pursuits at play-off places. On the back of impressive recruitment, the Brewers are on people’s radars. Adopting and persisting with a more fluid, progressive style of play could mean that they soon get taken seriously…
12th - Wigan Athletic
A very hard team to judge this year, mainly because they must start out by playing catch-up to everyone else. When Wigan Athletic are in League One, you have normally been able to simply pop them in the automatic places and see it land come the end of the season. The prior exception to that was 2020-21, it feels like there could be another exception here. Latics fans endured a torrid few months as last season drew to a close. Failure to pay players resulted in a three-point deduction in March 2023 which all but killed Wigan’s hopes of Championship survival. That issue around late payments continued to persist into the post-season, where a further three point deduction would be added to their 2022-23 total, alongside a four-point deduction ahead of their 2023-24 campaign in League One. A further deduction to the 23-24 total came in late May, continuing a tense period for fans desperate for updates on their club’s survival as an entity. Major ownership issues were finally sorted in mid-June with a takeover from Wigan Warriors co-owner Mike Danson. The damage done leaves Wigan Athletic beginning this season on -8 points, requiring at least three games to move back into positive numbers and potentially move off the bottom of the table. The challenge for us predictors now is assessing the strength of the squad, how well they could do across the 46-game season, and then factoring in the eight points already deducted from their total accumulation. In a division that is expected to be as open as League One is this year, that could drop them down a fair few places. Shaun Maloney is a manager I have no major issues with. The club icon returned to the DW Stadium in late January 2023, amassing a respectable 20 points from 18 games. With the exception of a 3-0 defeat at runaway champions Burnley, Wigan’s Championship games under Maloney were generally tight, low-scoring affairs. The 40-year-old should hopefully enjoy having a first full season in a division where Wigan are not the regular underdog and has a decent group to work with in League One. Experienced goalkeeper Ben Amos comes into his third full season with the Latics as the clear number one. Academy graduates Sam Tickle and Tom Watson are his current understudies. Whilst Jason Kerr remains out of action with injury, hopes are high for 20-year-old Scot Liam Morrison who joins on loan from Bayern Munich’s second team. His prior experience is in the German youth leagues and lower leagues. Kelland Watts is a familiar name as he comes back to League One for a loan spell from Newcastle United. Bright young defender Charlie Hughes remains after playing regularly in the second half of last season. Luke Robinson previously played a part in the 2020-21 season and returns from an unproductive loan at Tranmere Rovers. James Carragher, son of Liverpool legend Jamie, is on the periphery. Sean Clare is an interesting new addition from Charlton Athletic. The 26-year-old’s versatility makes him usable as a full-back on either side or as a tenacious central midfielder. He feels a solid League One player without being an exceptional one. Clare looks the standout right-back option at the time of writing, with 20-year-old Kieran Lloyd yet to make his league debut for Wigan. Tom Pearce and Luke Robinson are options on the far-left side of defence, though Maloney may once again turn to James McClean. The 34-year-old demonstrated two seasons ago that he can be a true cut above League One level when on his game. Midfield presents an opportunity for several new additions to prove their worth. Liam Shaw is on a season-long loan from Celtic, having previously impressed at this level with Morecambe. Matt Smith has gained plenty of League One knowhow from previous loan spells with Swindon Town, Charlton Athletic and Doncaster Rovers and now makes a permanent move away from Arsenal. James Balagizi is a loan capture I really like. The 19-year-old Liverpool youngster looked a great propsect during his spell at Crawley Town before injury sadly cut it short. Balagizi is a tall attacking midfielder who can also be deployed wide on the right as part of the frontline. The new faces join a unit that includes Scott Smith and the more attacking Theo Aasgaard. Aasgaard should be seen as one to watch after previous output in both League One and the Championship with Wigan Athletic. The 21-year-old can play in a variety of positions behind the striker, but faces a lot of competition in wide areas. Forward Callum Lang should be seen as one of the biggest threats in this Latics side, a star when down at this level two seasons ago. Jordan Jones is back from a loan spell up in Scotland. Jonny Smith arrives from Burton Albion, a hit-and-miss winger when coming from the right-hand-side. Better consistency will make him a star. Callum McManaman does feel an odd signing though. The 32-year-old has plenty of previous history with Wigan Athletic but has been out of action for over a year following a largely quite season at League Two Tranmere Rovers in 2021-22. Stephen Humphrys, Charlie Wyke and Josh Magennis are Wigan’s primary striker options at the time of writing. It’s difficult at this stage to say who will stand out. All three made contributions at this level two seasons ago but were someway off the numbers Callum Lang and the now-departed Will Keane produced. Wyke’s 2021-22 season was of course impacted by his recovery from a cardiac arrest, and a hamstring injury would restrict his gametime to just 18 appearances in the Championship last season. Humphrys went out on loan to Heart of Midlothian last term. There could be all kinds of opinions around on where Wigan Athletic finish this season. It’s difficult to judge any side that is starting behind everyone else in the race. I certainly don’t carry relegation concerns about the Latics, but a seriously high points total is going to needed in order to end up in the top six places come the end of the season. Shaun Maloney doesn’t have a bad group, plenty of big name players still in the side and some exciting additions in midfield in particular. My gut feeling on them? A comfortable climb into the top half with points accumulated, knocked back into the middle of the pack by that eight-point deduction. Wigan may have to wait another year yet before pushing for the second tier again…
11th - Wycombe Wanderers
2023 has brought a summer that Wycombe Wanderers fans haven’t experienced for over a decade. It was only last February that Gareth Ainsworth brought his long association with the Chairboys to an end. In 550 games at the helm, the 50-year-old allowed Wycombe to experience all of the EFL. Life that begun at the bottom end of the fourth tier peaked with a first ever season of Championship football, earning play-off finishes in his last two full campaigns in League One. Ainsworth’s gift for raising the level of players seemingly past their prime was what helped to make him such an adored and successful figure in High Wycombe. He will begin this new season however in the league above with Queens Park Rangers. The man tasked with filling very big boots is Matt Bloomfield. On paper, he is a logical pick, an equally adored figure at Adams Park who has long been moulded and influenced by Ainsworth’s effective style. The 39-year-old is very much still a rookie in the management world though. A brief spell with Colchester United between September 2022 and February 2023 only really started catching the eye after the U’s received a very productive January transfer window. To expect Bloomfield to instantly hit the hights and levels that Ainsworth could manage simply isn’t fair on him. It is in situations like these where you hope to see a rookie boss provided with good backing, and it does like Wycombe Wanderers are doing that for him. Polish stopper Max Stryjek should be expected to hold his position as starting goalkeeper. 18-year-old Laurence Shala comes in from Crystal Palace to act as his understudy. Chris Forino-Joseph remains at the time of writing. The 23-year-old is one of the big success stories from Wycombe’s development pathway, and forms a very nice centre-back partnership alongside Ryan Tafazolli. Newly added into the central defensive group are the vastly experienced Richard Keogh and 21-year-old Joe Low. Keogh is a difficult one to judge, a player past his best years who might well have flourished under the Ainsworth magic, but at this stage is someone I wouldn’t expect to establish himself as a defensive regular. Low should be seen as one for the future, a player needing to prove his worth at the level after a loan with League Two Walsall last season that wasn’t particularly eye-catching. Additional centre-back options come from club icon Joe Jacobson, as well as utility men Jack Grimmer and Jason McCarthy. The latter two are naturally right-backs, but their impressive utility means that they are often slotted into wherever needed in the team. Kane Vincent-Young is a top signing, a quality full-back on either side who shone when coming through at Colchester United. His time at Ipswich Town saw him struggle to nail down a regular place in the team, but he is someone considered a top League One level full-back when given the run of gametime. Harry Boyes arrives on loan from Sheffield United as a dynamic left-back option. It’s a third League One loan for the 21-year-old, a player who I still feel up to now is most admired for his time at Solihull Moors in 2021-22. Boyes got a good amount of gametime at both Forest Green Rovers and Lincoln City but didn’t have that great an impact at either. Luke Leahy could prove one of the most important signings of this summer. Naturally a left-back, Leahy has become a good-level goalscoring midfielder during his time at Shrewsbury Town, recognised in particular for his ability from the penalty spot. Handing the number 10 shirt to the 30-year-old is an indication to me that Bloomfield sees him most in central areas, and last year’s Salop Player of the Season should be a good fit at Adams Park. Josh Scowen is a deeper-lying midfielder who I have admired for a number of seasons now. Hopes are high for Kian Breckin on a season-long loan from Manchester United. Jasper Pattenden is a young option in both midfield and at full-back. What does Garath McCleary have left in the tank? Now 36, Ainsworth did great work to manage his minutes and deliver two solid seasons of goal and assist output in League One. Bloomfield should strive to do the same, because the former Jamaica International is still capable of providing quality individual moments. David Wheeler enjoyed the most productive season of his Wycombe career in 2022-23, and the 32-year-old is a serious utility man who can be deployed in a variety of positions up top, in midfield, or at full-back. Brandon Hanlan should be targeting an improvement on last season’s low output. Any previous concerns about a dependence on Sam Vokes to lead the line have been answered with the signing of Dale Taylor. The 19-year-old is a prospect who plays well beyond his years, a Northern Ireland international with excellent movement, great battle, work-rate, quality ball control and a comfortable shooter off either foot. The Nottingham Forest man enjoyed a very successful loan spell with Burton Albion in the second half of last season, and should be seen as one of the players to watch this term as he spends the full campaign at Adams Park. Gibraltar international Tjay De Barr is a forward I’m keen to see the further progression of this season. D’Mani Mellor is on the Chairboys’ periphery. Hand this Wycombe squad to Gareth Ainsworth, I back them for top six. He just finds a way. Matt Bloomfield is the man considered to be the heir to his throne, and this season is an opportunity for him to prove he deserves that title. It is no secret that the Chairboys dropped off after Ainsworth departed last February, ending hopes of a second consecutive play-off campaign and providing yet more proof of how good a job the 50-year-old was still doing at Adams Park. Bloomfield is not Ainsworth yet; the hope is that he will be down the line. At the very least though, he looks to have a group capable of being competitive in the top half of the third tier. If he can find the same pot of magic dust that Ainsworth used for over a decade, Wycombe are one to watch…
10th - Barnsley
Replacing Michael Duff is no easy feat for any club, especially when he has had such a phenomenal impact on the team on such a short space of time. It was only 12 months ago that the Northern Irishman was beginning his tenure at Barnsley, inherited a side that had just come off the back of an awful Championship season and was generally low on confidence and expectation. In the space of a season, the Tykes are taken to a realistic promotion push with an impressive 86-point haul and are beaten in the Wembley play-off final by the most last gasp of winners. Many would have fancied Barnsley at that point to kick on and progress as one of the league’s top sides the following season. The Tykes have to enter this campaign without their star manager however, and that is not all they have lost. Neill Collins is an uncertainty. A new name to EFL management. The 39-year-old’s previous experience was with Tampa Bay Rowdies in the USL, the detached second tier of football in the United States and a level that is difficult to directly compare with the Football League. Collins is a familiar face in the English game from his time as a player and now must prove his value as a manager. Without either Harry Isted or Brad Collins now on their books, Barnsley must turn to a new man to feature regularly between the sticks. Liam Roberts could prove decent, previously an impressive League Two goalkeeper with Walsall who became Middlesbrough’s backup in 2022-23 and now joins Barnsley on loan. Ben Killip is his backup at Oakwell, someone who may have mixed opinions from his last season at Hartlepool United but generally was a goalkeeper I liked. Mads Andersen’s departure to the Premier League would be felt by any League One side. Bobby Thomas is in turn now elsewhere. The Tykes do still have impressive left-sided defender Liam Kitching, but really need Robbie Cundy to step up and prove his worth as a regular. Kacper Łopata has been long admired as an EFL star-in-waiting whilst with Southend United and now gets his chance. Conor McCarthy is an additional right-sided option. A big positive for Barnsley is that they do, for now at least, have their star wing-backs still on their books. Nicky Cadden and Jordan Williams were standout performers on the left and right sides respectively. Cadden is known for his crossing ability from the left-hand-side and quality when shooting from distance. Williams’ dynamism and pace made him a constant threat when switches of play were fired out to him. Barry Cotter can cover mainly on the right-hand-side, likewise natural midfielder Josh Benson. Corey O’Keefe is the ultimate defensive utility man. Kyran Lofthouse comes in from Woking. Luca Connell and the returning Callum Styles can deputise at left-wing-back, but both would want to feature more regularly in the centre of the park. Connell was one of last season’s stars, excelling with his distribution from a deeper-lying position and providing top quality set-piece delivery. Styles is back from a loan in the league above at Millwall. The Hungary international made a bit-part contribution to the Lion’s play-off push. Styles’ task is to break apart the trio of Connell, Herbie Kane and Adam Phillips that were so effective last term. Kane and Phillips were superb parts of an aggressive midfield press. The latter in turn showed once again why he had earned a reputation as a goalscoring midfielder with Morecambe. The towering Jon Russell remains part of the Tykes midfield unit, as does Josh Benson and academy product Matty Wolfe. Neill Collins needs to target recreating the output provided by Devante Cole and James Norwood last season. The striker pair combined for 27 league goals last term, Cole the particular standout following a career which up till then had been largely underwhelming. James Norwood has now departed the club, however. Max Watters is now back permanently from Cardiff City and the instinctive finisher could have a good season at growth at Oakwell. There’s a big step up for Andrew Dallas who is looking to bring his impressive National League goalscoring record into the Football League. Fábio Jaló could be one of the periphery forwards in the squad to keep an eye on. Hopes of kicking on after just missing out last season have been dashed by key departures in the dugout and in defence. The loss of the likes of Duff, Andersen and Isted may have knocked back hopes of some Tykes fans after a really positive 2022-23, but there is no need for complete pessimism. A quality midfield and frontline still remains. Neill Collins is out to prove himself a worthwhile appointment. If he can rebuild the defence and restore the Tykes back to the very top end of the table, he will have ticked the boxes.
9th - Peterborough United
One of the disadvantages of making predictions before the season starts is knowing that the transfer window still runs to the end of the month. That creates a particular problem with predicting a club like Peterborough United, whose first team could be quite different by the time September rolls around. Posh’s retained list created headlines that weren’t really warranted. Darragh MacAnthony has a habit of transfer-listed players who are into the final year of their contract. That creates an element of uncertainty with the immediate futures of key players in all three outfield units, on top of the standout stars of last season who will no doubt still be on the radars of higher up clubs. Peterborough have already been hit by losses since their 2022-23 campaign came to an end, ones which will force the club to relax general expectations about a pursuit of top two. Further losses, and it could extinguish realistic hopes of any post-season football. Darren Ferguson has been and done it all at London Road. As humorous as it was to see the 51-year-old arrive for a fourth different spell with Peterborough, it was a logical decision. Ferguson has won four promotions with Posh since 2009. Three of those have been from League One up to the Championship. The Scot took over in early January with Peterborough eighth in the table. 14 wins later, he’s secured them a final play-off spot against the odds. In the build-up to a season like the one they are having, there isn’t another man you would rather see in the London Road dugout. Peterborough will have to go again with a new number one. Will Blackmore was largely an understudy in 2022-23, making just three league appearances around the turn of the new year. Nicholas Bilokapic has been brought in from Huddersfield Town, a 20-year-old Australian who had a handful of Championship appearances for the Terriers in the first half of last season, and has just finished an unproductive loan spell with Hartlepool United at the bottom of League Two. Both have plenty of growth left in them, but neither have yet to establish themselves at EFL level. It’s a similar story with Fynn Talley who has been brought in from Brighton and Hove Albion. Ronnie Edwards remains at the time of writing. The England U20 international is one of the brightest talents anywhere in the EFL, seemingly destined for big things and almost guaranteed to be away from London Road by the time the window shuts. Josh Knight remains as a right-sided centre-back, and is joined by Romoney Crichlow. The left-footed defender has excelled down in League Two but up until now hasn’t cracked League One. Posh will aim to make him their latest successful defensive investment. Current squad options could require Joe Tomlinson to have a breakthrough campaign with Posh, a young full-back who can play on either side. There is still academy graduate Harrison Burrows, however. The 21-year-old was a regular last season as a left-back, left-wing-back or attacking midfielder. Out on the right, Peter Kioso comes in on loan from Rotherham United. The Irish/Congolese wing-back has caught the eye with a number of previous lower league loans, and it’s an honest surprise to see Rotherham willing to leave him out of their upcoming Championship campaign. Midfield features two arrivals who really fit the mould of what with have come to expect from Peterborough United’s recruitment standards. Archie Collins has spent his time with boyhood club Exeter City growing into one the most accomplished metronome midfielders around. Ryan De Havilland is the latest to join the Barnet-Peterborough United food chain, a standout for the play-off-earning Bees in deeper midfield last season. Jeando Fuchs and Hector Kyprianou are in turn deeper-lying midfield players. The aforementioned Harrison Burrows is an attacking midfield option. Darren Ferguson could also deploy the lively Kwame Poku in attacking midfield, but by the end of last season Poku was instead the star right-winger in the Peterborough frontline. Left-winger Ephron Mason-Clark has quickly become one of my favourite League One players, an outstanding direct threat with superb attacking output when playing inverted and let loose on the counter. Academy graduate Ricky-Jade Jones in turn played his part in Posh’s play-off push. David Ajiboye and Joel Randall are wingers who have previously excelled down in League Two but have yet to make their mark at Peterborough United. Plenty of eyes will be watching what happens to Jonson Clarke-Harris. Last season’s golden boot winner is an undeniable goal machine in the third tier. 58 League One goals whilst with Posh and 24 in two previous seasons at Bristol Rovers. The 29-year-old is one of the players into the final year of his contract however, and it remains to be seen whether the Jamaica international spends this new campaign with the Cambridgeshire outfit. Kabongo Tshimanga has made a previously agreed permanent move from Chesterfield. The 26-year-old was a goal machine of his own down in non-league but has yet to do anything of note at Posh. He has boots to fill if JCH moves on. Past seasons have allowed you to carry strong faith in Peterborough United finishing in the mix for top six. It’s not quite that simple this year. Peterborough still recruit in their typically smart fashion when at this level, but have a good deal to already replace and could yet see more depart before the conclusion of the summer window. Reports of financial problems at the club may also force a shift of strategy away from the previous all-out for League One promotion approach. Darren Ferguson is always the right man to have when Peterborough are in the third tier, but there’s only so much he can do if stripped of his star assets and forced to build again with a more sustainable model. Fortunes could go either way this season. Posh are a hard one to judge…
8th - Bristol Rovers
Bristol Rovers are appearing on people’s dark horse radars, and rightly so. The Gas recorded a solid enough finish in 2022-23 after being newly promoted back to League One, though would have probably liked better 2023 form after an encouraging winter period. Joey Barton’s side were a chaotic team for large parts of last season, very capable firepower mixed with defensive susceptibility. That firepower continues to be available in 2023-24, and the addition of defensive solidity could make them a serious League One force. James Belshaw faces competition from Matthew Cox, a 20-year-old goalkeeper who will spend the season on loan from Brentford. Jed Ward is his inexperienced understudy. Hoping to sure up the Pirates defence are a pair of experienced defenders. Left-sided defender George Friend is in from Birmingham City, but the one I am particularly keen on is James Wilson. The 34-year-old is a right-sided defender and a regular for title winners Plymouth Argyle just last season. Gas fans are rightly on a high following the return of Connor Taylor, this time on a permanent transfer from Stoke City. The trio add to a backline that also includes developing talent James Connolly and right-sided defender Luca Hoole as alternative centre-back options, with Frenchman Tristan Crama coming in on loan from Brentford. Luca Hoole still feels a better fit in a right-back role however, with James Gibbons his main competition in that position. Lewis Gordon is the standout option at left-back in the current squad, with George Friend also capable of operating on that side. Midfielder Josh Grant’s versatility makes him an additional option across defence. The 24-year-old managed just one league appearance last season, however. Sam Finley, Grant Ward and Antony Evans can form a consistent midfield trio together, Evans a player still best known for his attacking and creative quality. Jordan Rossiter and Luke McCormick are additional midfield options. Jerry Lawrence and Ryan Jones are younger players on the first team periphery. Luke Thomas featured for Bristol Rovers during their recent League Two promotion season and is now back on a permanent deal from Barnsley. The 24-year-old is naturally a right-winger, but often featured as a substitute in midfield during the Tykes run to the League One play-off final. Scott Sinclair is among the other forward options who remain at the Memorial Stadium. Key to Bristol Rovers’ success this season are a pair of standout attacking players. Jevani Brown shone for Exeter City last season, providing 21 goal contributions either up front or behind the frontline in a creative attacking midfield role. Aaron Collins was the Gas’ own star and the newly crowned League One Player of the Season. Best when given the licence to roam free and drift into the left channel, the 26-year-old registered 16 goals and 11 assists during a sensational 2022-23 campaign. John Marquis and Ryan Loft are naturally strikers who played across the frontline and contributed to the Pirates goal tally. An impressive front-footed outfit from last season looks like it could have even more firepower in this new campaign. Jevani Brown and Luke Thomas are both excellent additions and add to a plethora of attacking options. Time will tell whether new defensive signings can provide much-needed solidity to a backline that conceded 73 times last term. Bristol Rovers are really not far aware from turning a good team into a great team, that added experience at the back could yet prove the missing piece of the puzzle. One to watch…
7th - Lincoln City
Let’s say it as it is. Lincoln City were a weird team last year. Their record against the division’s top sides was excellent. They were beaten just twice in league games at their Sincil Bank home. There were undoubted elements of the Imps season that suggested their capabilities as a top six competitor, yet the campaign was spent largely around the middle of the table. 20 league draws will have played a big part in that, including a whopping 14 on home soil. The foundations have clearly been set; Lincoln are a team hard to beat. It’s turning those draws into wins that will bring the Imps up to the next level. There was a whole mixture of opinions around 12 months ago when Mark Kennedy began his tenure at Sincil Bank. The Irishman had been out of the senior management circle for a while with his previous role being at a sinking Macclesfield Town. His first campaign has really encouraged me though. He was clearly looking to implement an effective style onto the squad, and his biggest limitations came from a lack of genuine centre-forwards. Progress is the achievable target in 2023-24. Lincoln will have the choice of Jordan Wright or Lukas Jensen as their starting goalkeeper for this new season, both 24 years old. The latter comes in permanently from Burnley having been Accrington’s main number one last term and is the favourite to take the gloves at Sincil Bank. The Imps are going to have to adapt to life without star right-sided defender Regan Poole, but a good group nonetheless remains. Adam Jackson and Paudie O’Connor established themselves as regulars in Mark Kennedy’s backline. Dutchman Lewis Montsma has previously been a defensive star at the Imps but had his 2022-23 gametime impacted by fitness issues. Timothy Eyoma and the returning Jay Benn are right-sided central defensive options. Sean Roughan is a bright prospect out of the academy who is primarily a left-back but can play centrally. Competition for Roughan at left-wing-back comes from Jaden Brown, a new arrival who was bit-part during Sheffield Wednesday’s recent promotion season. Eyoma is primarily suited to playing up the right-hand-side, but Lincoln also have natural midfielder Lasse Sørensen who can be deployed there to decent effect. Ethan Erhahon is hoped to have a star role in the Imps midfielder, a left-footed ballplayer who caught the eye soon after arriving from St. Mirren last January. Lasse Sørensen and Teddy Bishop are also senior central midfield options, as are Alistair Smith and Ethan Hamilton. The latter pair are both 24 years old and smart signings from the division below, developing into really nice box-to-box presences whilst with Sutton United and Accrington Stanley respectively. Billy Brooks, Oisin Gallagher and Morgan Worsfold-Gregg are young players on the periphery. Danny Mandroiu is a player I have become a very big fan of. The 24-year-old Irishman operates as an attacking midfielder or out wide in the frontline, and further growth in his goal output will go a long way to helping Lincoln City reach their goals. Reeco Hackett is an intriguing signing. The forward doesn’t leave Portsmouth with much fanfare and could be one that Kennedy hopes to turn into a star. Flashes of his quality have been seen in previous loan spells with Bromley and Southend United. Whether Hakeeb Adelakun’s future is in the Imps team remains to be seen. It has been a while since the 27-year-old last looked a big threat at this level. Ben House is a striker who I feel is generally underappreciated by League One followers. The 24-year-old has the versatility to be pushed out left or dropped into midfield and delivered an excellent personal return for Lincoln just last season. A previous dependence on him to lead the line may well have been eased by the return of Tyler Walker. The 26-year-old forward is very popular round these parts for his output during a 2019-20 loan. Now a permanent addition, Imps fans are understandably excited to see what Mark Kennedy can deliver with the lively frontman on his books. Jovon Makama sits in reserve. As confusing as Lincoln City’s 2022-23 was to understand, it was undoubtedly a step in the right direction. There were multiple occasions during the season where the Imps showed their capabilities against the best of the best, and a defensive record bettered by just four teams is the indication of a side hard to break through and beat. Mark Kennedy still has a couple of tasks on his hands, namely replacing the ability of Regan Poole, unlocking the talent of previously unwanted players, and turning those persistent draws into victories. Is Kennedy capable of doing that? Absolutely. This looks a season for underdogs in League One, one that Lincoln City need to take advantage of…
6th - Oxford United
There will be Oxford United fans thankful that their club can even still be in another League One prediction. A miserable three-month long winless run left the U’s in a precarious position just above the bottom four, being saved with consecutive wins in late April to eventually finish 19th. After breathing a sigh of relief, restored hope. The promise of a very competitive budget has built a side that should be battling for Championship football again very soon. Liam Manning is still a head coach I hold in very high regard. My memories of him with Milton Keynes Dons focus much more on the magnificent promotion-chasing side he built then the one which made a very poor start to 2022-23. Whan handed the tools, the 37-year-old can create a fine attacking, possession-based outfit. Oxford’s appointment of Manning wouldn’t have felt a realistic one 12 months ago when he was one of the hottest properties anywhere in the EFL. A hit to his reputation has allowed the Yellows to swoop in for him, and Oxford could well take advantage of that. Between the sticks for the U’s should be James Beadle. The Brighton and Hove Albion loanee gets a chance in League One after a brief but impressive spell with League Two Crewe Alexandra last season. Simon Eastwood will provide the primary competition to the 19-year-old prospect. Left-sided defender Jordan Thorniley is back at Oxford United after being released from Blackpool. The 26-year-old is the likely partner to the impressive Elliott Moore in central defence. Fellow left-sided Ciaron Brown is an additional centre-back option, as are the much more inexperienced Stephen Negru and Teddy Mfuni. Sam Long can play across the backline but is still best suited to a right-back role. He will face competition this season however from Brentford loanee Finn Stevens, whilst the versatile James Henry can be deployed there if necessary. Ciaran Brown as it stands is the current standout option for left-back in this Oxford United team. Liam Manning’s best path to success will be utilising what I have long considered to be a high-quality midfield unit. Cameron Brannagan is still the superstar, a goalscoring central player now into his seventh season at the Kassam Stadium. Marcus McGuane was a regular last season in a deeper role. Alex Gorrín sadly missed a large period of last season through injury. Academy graduate Tyler Goodrham is a great prospect, a bright player capable both in midfield and as a winger who had a breakthrough season in 2022-23. James Henry can cover positions in both midfield and out on the right. Further added into the mix is Josh McEachran, an all-round midfielder who Liam Manning previously worked with during his time at Milton Keynes Dons. Oisin Smyth is an attacking midfielder on the first team periphery. Preference for a three-man frontline will allow Manning to choose from a number of wide forwards. Marcus Browne could be the man to watch here, a talented player who was with Manning when both were in the West Ham United academy. Billy Bodin featured both wide and centrally last season. Josh Murphy and Yanic Wildschut both appeared a number of times in wide positions but have output that needs to improve before they can be considered serious threats. Mark Harris is an interesting addition from Cardiff City, a 24-year-old forward who was a bit-part substitute for the Bluebirds by the end of 22-23. Life down in a lower division could reignite his spark. Everton loanee Stanley Mills instantly grabs my attention with his great name, and the winger has already suggested in pre-season that there could be a fun campaign ahead for him. Oxford United’s capture of Rúben Rodrigues may prove one of the best pieces of business from the League One. The 26-year-old has spent the last three seasons with Notts County in the National League, showing time and time that he clearly had quality far above fifth tier level. He is a Portuguese talent who plays primarily in attacking midfield or up top. What position Manning chooses for him may depend on the alternatives a striker that Oxford have by the time the window is closed. 19-year-old Max Wwoltman comes in on a permanent deal from Liverpool, one for Liam Manning to work on and develop. The experienced Sam Baldock barely featured last season. 18-year-old Gatlin O’Donkor is a player you want to ease into regular first team minutes rather than being dependant on him for goals at such a young age. Oxford United are strong candidates for biggest improvement this season. After a season of nerves, attention and budget turns towards the top end of the division. The U’s previously had a period spent challenging for a place in the Championship, and work has been well underway to build a side capable of returning to the league’s top places, under a coach who not long ago was seriously hot property. The need for centre-forward and left-back depth could still do with being addressed before the end of the window, but Liam Manning has already set the foundations of a high-quality side in place over pre-season. It’s giving flashbacks to the MK Dons side of 2021-22, and we all know how that went…
5th - Charlton Athletic
At a risk of overestimation, I really like what Charlton Athletic are doing. The Addicks have languished in the middle of League One the last couple of years. False hopes, a sense that a return to Championship football is too far away. This season though, there’s an opportunity. An open division, few standouts, a chance for those in the middle pack to step up and mount serious pushes for the top six. With the group that Charlton have built, I like their odds. Dean Holden has made a positive impact on the pitch since taking the reins in December 2022. A frustratingly high number of draws in the first half of 2022-23 became more regular wins following the turn of the year. The 43-year-old is in good stead if he can carry that more positive upturn of form into the new campaign. Harry Isted arrives on a free transfer from Luton Town. Last season, he established himself as the star number one for a Barnsley side that went all the way to the play-off final. Ashley Maynard-Brewer had become the Addick’s number one by the end of last season, and now has very good competition. If there’s an area for Charlton to improve in the remaining weeks of the window, it’s in central defence. Michael Hector, Terell Thomas and Lloyd Jones are the senior centre-back options at the Valley. Hector was a January free agent signing who had been out of action for more than six months but had become a regular at the back by the end of 2022-23. Terell Thomas was much more bit-part due to a period of injury. Jones feels a nice enough addition after two seasons of relegation battles with Cambridge United. 18-year-old Zach Mitchell is a young option for Holden in either defence of midfield. Deji Elerewe was on loan at Wealdstone and Bromley last term. Mandela Egbo is still available as a dynamic right-back for Dean Holden, but and a previous whole on the left side has been filled by the incredibly versatile Tayo Edun. Young Richard Chin can cover both sides, but it is up for debate as to whether he is League One standard yet. Corey Blackett-Taylor could deputise as a wing-back on the left, but it has never felt his best game. George Dobson could provide a starring role at the base of midfield once again. 22-year-old Terry Taylor arrives after time with Burton Albion, a brilliant deep-lying ballplayer with quality in-swinging delivery from set pieces. Scott Fraser is a technical creator. Jack Payne is a nimble attacking player that is regularly deployed out wide. Conor McGrandles returns from a loan at Cambridge United, whilst the loan arrival of Panutche Camará could be one of the best pieces of business in the league. The Ipswich Town man is a player I adore, an exceptional ball carrier who can glide through the centre of the park and up into forward areas. Aaron Henry and Richard Chin are additional midfield options. What roles will Dean Holden find for his wide players this season? Replacing the output of superstar loanee Jesurun Rak-Sakyi will be no easy feat. Tyreece Campbell enjoyed a breakthrough season where he established himself on the left side of the frontline. Charlie Kirk and Corey Blackett-Taylor are also suited to playing inverted on that side. Diallang Jaiyesimi returns from a fairly quite loan at AFC Wimbledon. He can cover both flanks and play as an attacking midfielder. Charlton Athletic fans will hope Alfie May can prove a star signing. The 30-year-old was in-demand on the back of two exceptional League One seasons with Cheltenham Town. 43 league goals in 85 league appearances which include an array of finishes both composed and outrageous. It is down to the Addicks to play to his strengths, letting him be the man on the end of the chances rather than being required to bring the rest of his team into play. Exciting teenage striker Miles Leaburn remains on the books at the time of writing, a towering presence who had excellent output during his breakthrough 2022-23 campaign. Chuks Aneke feels more of a squad option at this stage of his Charlton career. Something good looks to be brewing at the Valley. Signings in through the door are making people sit up and take notice of the Addicks. We don’t have the finished product yet though. Added depth in defence will go a long way to improving this side further. With players like Isted, Taylor, Camará and May brought in, it’s difficult not to move the Addicks into my “bullish” category though. Charlton are far from what I would consider a third-tier underdog, but they have been a side who have spent a period looking up at the top places rather than being in them. It’s time to take advantage of this open League One line-up…
4th - Blackpool
The most capable of three relegated sides for mounting an immediate return to the Championship. Unlike their fellow relegation zone neighbours who both were hit with points deductions, Blackpool’s drop out of the second tier was exclusively a case of simply not having enough for the level. First Michael Appleton then Mick McCarthy failed to provide sufficient results in pursuit of a second season of survival. Interim Stephen Dobbie ultimately oversaw the Tangerines’ relegation confirmation. Fast forward to August, there’s a very valid reason for hope. Neil Critchley is back in the Bloomfield Road dugout, a position that I wish he’d never left in the first place. The 44-year-old has previously shown to be a gem with Blackpool, winning promotion through the League One play-offs in his first full season at the helm. The following year, he leads the Seasiders to a season almost entirely spent outside of the Championship relegation zone, recording the club’s highest league finish since 2012-13. There’s no mystery with this appointment. We know what to expect from Critchley at a place that has felt such a good fit for him. He in turn has a group of players that have been rebuilt in a smart way following relegation. Daniel Grimshaw battled with Chris Maxwell for starts during 2022-23. The latter earned more appearances but having now moved on. It sets the way for the former Manchester City product to show his own quality in the division below. The experienced Richard O’Donnell and 20-year-old Mackenzie Chapman are new additions in the goalkeeper department. Picking up Matthew Pennington is a smart piece of business. The 28-year-old has shown to be a highly competent right-sided defender during his years at Shrewsbury Town. He will add quality to a central defensive unit that includes Marvin Ekpiteta, left-sided defender James Husband and right-sided defender Jordan Lawrence-Gabriel. Oliver Casey and Doug Tharme were both on loan at this level last season with Forest Green Rovers and Accrington Stanley respectively. Neither admittedly shone that brightly at their loan teams and still need to demonstrate their capabilities in the third tier. Versatile full-back Andy Lyons and left-sided player Dominic Thompson both remain from last season. Pennington’s arrival in the centre may allow one or both of James Husband and Jordan Lawrence-Gabriel to get gametime in their more natural full-back positions. Added into the Tangerines midfield unit are a further two signings who are well-weathered League One players. Albie Morgan covers a variety of positions in both midfield and out wide. Oliver Norburn can be an all-action central star. The pair face good competition from those still at Bloomfield Road, however. Australian Kenny Dougall had a big influence in Blackpool’s promotion under Critchley three seasons ago. Callum Connolly can be deployed in central defence or in central midfield. Tom Trybull can take up similar roles but had injury impact his 2022-23. Matty Virtue returns from a good loan at this level with Lincoln City. Sonny Carey is a player I am keen to see in action in a lower division to where he has been the last two seasons. CJ Hamilton was part of the promotion-winning Blackpool team from 2021-22. The winger is someone I’ve not felt sure about at Championship level, but may find life better down a division in League One. Owen Dale meanwhile returns from a loan with Portsmouth. The 24-year-old is someone I still think could and should be a very adept right-winger in the third tier. As star striker Jerry Yates departed to Swansea City, Blackpool got Kyle Joseph back the other way. Still only 21, the memories of his breakthrough season with a struggling Wigan Athletic are still well in my mind. A loan spell with Oxford United last term produced his best goal output so far, and he is someone I think Neil Critchley could develop into a good quality centre-forward. Northern Irish striker Shayne Lavery is a player I have long been an admirer of. He built a big reputation in his native country and whilst his goal output in the Championship with Blackpool was relatively low, he could potentially be someone who thrives down a division. Jake Beesley is an additional centre-forward option on the Seasiders’ books. Blackpool return to League One with a team that might not have been able to cut it in the second tier, but looks like it could be one of the best in the third tier. There are several players in this side who could stand out in the division this season, and outfield recruitment has brought in well-established League One names who will only add to the group. Couple that with the return of a manager who has been a better fit here than anywhere else, and there are plenty of reasons to enjoy being by the seaside…
3rd - Portsmouth
I’m playing the dangerous game. I’m believing in Portsmouth Football Club. Pompey’s previous six seasons in League One have largely been false hope. Eighth on three occasions, tenth in 2021-22, the only real positive being play-off finishes in 2018-19 and 2019-20 which both ended with semi-final eliminations. On the back of impressive recruitment though, and a general buzz around the fanbase ahead of the new season, I find it difficult not to feel bullish on their chances this time. 18 days after Danny and Nicky Cowley were dismissed from Fratton Park, John Mousinho was announced as their successor. The 37-year-old is very much still a rookie in management. This time 12 months ago he was a squad player at Oxford United. I have found the start of Mousinho’s tenure to be a largely positive one, beaten just four times in league matches and ending the season with an 11-game unbeaten run, although seven of those matches were draws. The former defender/midfielder certainly does not feel out of place as a League One head coach. What you really wanted this summer is to see him backed with good investment that can help take his team to the next level. He has been given that backing. Despite all the positives, I do carry a slight reservation for now in the goalkeeper department. Will Norris was not a particular standout despite being part of the Peterborough United side which reached the play-offs last season. The 29-year-old is in from Burnley and will have Huddersfield Town’s Ryan Schofield as his competition, a 23-year-old who had a brief loan spell at Crawley Town last term. New arrivals in defence include Conor Shaughnessy. The Irishman is a towering presence best suited to being a centre-back but can also be deployed as a midfield destroyer. Regan Poole was a great asset for Lincoln City last season and adds quality to the right side of defence. Ryley Tower has proved very popular since joining from Bristol City last January. Sean Raggett remains on the books as an additional central defensive player. Left-sided defender Conor Ogilvie faces competition at left-back from Denver Hume and Jack Sparkes. The latter is a new signing from Exeter City, one of an impressive crop out of the Grecians academy who has plenty of potential as a dynamic full-back or wing-back. Zak Swanson and Joe Rafferty are senior right-back options on Portsmouth’s books, as is the aforementioned Regan Poole. Marlon Pack’s ability to hold the fort in central midfield should make a valuable asset to Portsmouth once again in 2023-24. Ben Stevenson is in turn one to keep an eye on. The 26-year-old flourished as a roaming metronome midfielder when down in League Two with Forest Green Rovers and could have a similar role again at Fratton Park. Joe Morrell and Tom Lowery provide energy and technical quality respectively, players who benefit from Pack holding his position behind or alongside them. 19-year-old Northern Irish midfielder Terry Devlin comes in from Glentoran with high praise for his pressing game. Liam Vincent is a player on the periphery. The signing of wingers Anthony Scully and Gavin Whyte are deals that I really like. Scully previously demonstrated at this level with Lincoln City that he can be a frightening attacking threat when drifting in from the left-hand-side. Northern Irishman Whyte likewise impresses with his direct running from the right flank. Paddy Lane is an additional option as a winger of attacking midfielder, often featuring on the right-hand-side. The 22-year-old Northern Ireland international was long admired at Fleetwood Town for the quality of his deliveries into central areas. Colby Bishop will be keen to remain the main man at PO4, having registered 20 league goals in his first season after a move from Accrington Stanley. There looks to be good competition however from some younger striker arrivals. Christian Saydee has phenomenal physicality, and finally started to show a good goalscoring touch during a loan spell at Shrewsbury Town last season. Abu Kamara is loaned in from Norwich for his first taste proper taste of EFL football. Kusin Yengi is a relative unknown on these shores having previously played only in his native Australia, but comes with rave reviews from his time at Adelaide United and Western Sydney Wanderers. We’re closing in on a year since sporting director Richard Hughes arrived at Fratton Park from Forest Green Rovers. The Scot still receives plenty of plaudits for his part in building a title-winning team in 2021-22 that featured a young head coach still relatively new to senior management. Spot the similarities yet? John Mousinho has made a good first impression at Fratton Park, and now with backing that includes some accomplished defenders and exciting young forwards, it’s time for Pompey fans to start believing in Championship football again…
2nd - Derby County
After a rebuild job last summer that resulted in a fine team who just missed out on play-offs, it is time for Derby County to take a further step. Top six shouldn’t be the target for the Rams, they should be going for top two. Paul Warne has lost his 100% promotion record in League One, but that does not make him a failure. The 50-year-old inherited a team from Liam Rosenior that was never originally built for him, and it was never going to become one after a relatively quiet January window. Warne still did an admirable job to keep Derby in the mix with a very strong, competitive top pack whilst also turning several players into stars for the level. With three exceptional sides now up in the Championship, and a League line-up that feels more open than last season’s, the Pride Park outfit will be keen to quickly demonstrate their promotion credentials. Joe Wildsmith’s position as established number one looks set to have healthy competition from Josh Vickers. The 27-year-old is a very familiar name to Paul Warne from their time together at Rotherham United. Eiran Cashin should have another stellar campaign in central defence. The 21-year-old left-footer is already a star at Pride Park, a commanding presence at the back with superb defensive positioning and an ability to read the game that is well beyond his years. Curtis Nelson and Sonny Bradley come in from Championship clubs, both superb defenders in their own rights. Jake Rooney is an additional young centre-back option who can cover several positions in midfield and at right-back. Wing-back was an area of weakness often flagged up for Derby County last season, particularly the right-hand-side. That problem is more than answered now by Kane Wilson. Just two seasons ago, the right-sided man was the standout for Rob Edwards’ League Two title-winning Forest Green Rovers team, a dynamic player with superb crossing ability who played so high up in an expansive system that he could often be considered a winger. A move to Championship Bristol City in 2022-23 was affected by injury and didn’t work as first hoped. Now in Derbyshire, the 23-year-old’s ability and potential is well above League One level, and he will be keen to show it. As an alternative to Wilson, Derby in turn have the option of using Joe Ward, an aggressive attacking wide man who can play all the way up the right-hand-side and a player I have long admired at Peterborough United. Callum Elder comes in on the left after four years with Hull City, a well-seasoned, dynamic player who fits the mould of a Paul Warne wing-back. Club icon Craig Forsyth remains on the books at Pride Park for an 11th straight season. Irishman Conor Hourihane can still be expected to dictate play in the centre of the park. Academy graduate Max Bird has been a valuable star in deeper midfield for a few seasons now. The arrival of Kane Wilson and Joe Ward should mean far less dependence on Korey Smith to be played in a secondary right-back role and he should instead get to feature in central midfield much more often. Louie Sibley took up a number of roles on the left or in central positions but is still a player I like best as an attack-minded midfielder. Darren Robinson and Liam Thompson are young academy products on the first team periphery. Derby County will have to attack this new season without their previous top scorer, as David McGoldrick drops down to a level to boyhood club Notts County. That doesn’t leave the Rams without any firepower though. Irish striker James Collins will be joined by Northern Ireland international Conor Washington in what could be an effective front pairing, something Warne liked to often utilise as part of his promotion-winning Rotherham United teams. Tom Barkhuizen and Nathaniel Mendez-Laing are wingers who never really felt quite right as wing-backs last term. The pair are best suited to playing out wide in a frontline with support behind, and the latter is the particular asset that Warne will want to make good use of again. The newly capped Guatemala international was one of the Rams’ stars last term and his direct running is still a big threat at this level. Derby County will be considering top six to be the absolute minimum in 2022-23, but realistically want to pursue and achieve one of the two automatic places. All the ingredients are there to push for it. A manager with an excellent track record, and a squad much more suited to his image after some excellent, experienced additions. The key for the Rams now is setting the standard early at the top of the table, maintaining it, and seeing if anyone else can keep with them…
1st - Bolton Wanderers
There’s no risk of regression with this side. Bolton Wanderers enjoyed a play-off finish in 2022-23. This year, they’re wanting automatics. Ian Evatt and the Trotters have looked a great fit. The 41-year-old is someone I think will soon be comparable to the likes of Nathan Jones and Mark Robins, figures who have taken a single club from the basement of the Football League to the Championship, and in turn brought them very close to the riches of the Premier League. Evatt was an exciting arrival when he joined then-League Two Bolton after a National League title win with Barrow. Promotion in this first season, top half in League One in his second season, a play-off spot and EFL Trophy win in this third. Impressive progression with a style implemented that is fun, fluid, and leaves fans counting down the days till they can come to the UBol and see the team in action again. Tasked with filling the gloves of England prospect goalkeeper James Trafford will be Nathan Baxter. He looks a smart choice. Previous experience at this level with Accrington Stanley, two successive loan spells with Championship Hull City. But for injury, he could well have appeared more for the Tigers. The 24-year-old has a new home after permanently leaving boyhood club Chelsea. Joel Coleman is his backup. Ricardo Santos remains at the time of writing. The 28-year-old is one of the EFL’s finest defenders, a commanding, near unstoppable presence in the centre of a back three. With the news of left-sided defender George Johnston being out for the season, there is a need for a new face to star on the left side of defence. Declan John and Gethin Jones can deputise there but are more naturally wing-backs on the left and right sides respectively. Will Forrester comes in from Port Vale, a player looking to take his game up to top end level after being a regular for the Valiants last season. Northern Irish defender Eoin Toal has been growing from strength to strength since joining from Derry City last summer. Wing-back depth has been strengthened by an impressive addition on either side. Zac Ashworth arrives on an initial loan from West Bromwich Albion. The 20-year-old impressed in the second half of last season at Burton Albion with his grit, dynamism and composure. Josh Dacres-Cogley was one of League Two’s standout right-backs at Tranmere Rovers and gets a deserved chance a division higher. Declan John and Jack Iredale are left-sided defenders most suited to full-back roles. Gethin Jones is a utility man across the backline. The lively Randell Williams suits a dynamic wing-back role on either side. A technical midfield unit has for now slightly decreased in number. Josh Sheehan and Aaron Morley have long been admired at Bolton and their previous clubs for their ability to keep the tempo ticking along. Kyle Dempsey always impresses me in a more advanced role where he can unleash shots from the edge of the box. George Thomason is a tidy 22-year-old midfielder who has handled the progression from League Two to League One well. Paris Maghoma comes in on loan from Brentford, a nice technical passer who caught my eye with Milton Keynes Dons last season. He is hard to stop when gliding through midfield at full speed. What role will Ian Evatt find for Carlos Mendes Gomes? The 24-year-old joins permanently from Luton Town and has been one of the lower leagues’ best talents to emerge in the last few years. Primarily a winger who can also play in attacking midfield, Mendes Gomes thrives in a fluid role where he can provide creativity with slide-rule passes and good goalscoring output on either foot. Kieran Sadlier takes up similar positions but might well have lower importance than he previously had with the Trotters. Sadlier was loaned out to Leyton Orient in the second half of 2022-23. Up top, we are well aware of what Dion Charles can offer Bolton now. The 27-year-old was top scorer last season with 16 during the league season and 21 in all competitions. The real intrigue with Bolton will be who emerges as an effective strike partner for him. Victor Adeboyejo will hope to be it. The 25-year-old joined mid-way through 2022-23 after an excellent few months at Burton Albion, and will hope a full pre-season of integration can let his instinctive goalscoring talents and work rate flourish again. Jón Daði Böðvarsson is a likeable striker, deceptively mobile, but had last season impacted by fitness issues. Dan N’Lundulu returns on a permanent deal from Southampton. Veteran Cameron Jerome is still on the books. The striker options are there, but Charles is the only one who at the moment can be trusted for high output. A pursuit of top six last season should become a pursuit of top two this season. League One does not have many standout promotion candidates in 2023-24, but Bolton Wanderers are one of them. Ian Evatt has a couple of challenges, facing a year without George Johnston and still looking for that striker partner who can complement Dion Charles’ output. With a couple of quality wing-back additions and one of the best roaming creators now on their books though, this is a team that’s going to be a lot of fun. One last year in League One looks likely…